Ducati Monster Forum

JLo carrying momentum, leading FP1 and FP2 by worrisome margins.
Shoulder obviously painful in the garage, but doesn't seem to be slowing him on track.

Consistent pace 0.25 sec faster than Pedro and Loony Andy, and a solid 0.75 sec faster than Vale'.

MM struggling to get within 0.50 sec of JLo.

However.

Current forecast is ~90% chance of rain *all day* Sunday.
So odds are all activity prior to Sunday morning warmup means bupkus.

Sweet. So my 6 hr rain dance and goat sacrifice yesterday was not in vain?

^  [laugh]

Oh the drama, the rain will hopefully have a psychological effect on JLo as well. I wonder if he's gonna use the same face shield like last time.

Perhaps that big drop in rain probability will move forward, and add even more spice!  [evil]

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5658/22030593596_5e636f9f7c_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/zyLxWC)

^ Crap. Guess I'm gonna have to sacrifice the cat, too.

 ;D

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5766/21871110608_08918c5cb7_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/zjFacW)

So... Apparently it was #26 that won the mini bike race on Thursday.

(http://photos.motogp.com/2015/10/08/_gp_2940_0.middle.jpg)

http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/08/photo-gallery-mini-bikes-at-the-twin-ring-motegi/186287 (http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/08/photo-gallery-mini-bikes-at-the-twin-ring-motegi/186287)

Not that there's anything wrong with that...

 [laugh]

FP3 is in the books, and Lorenzo continues to dominate.

FP3:
1.   Jorge Lorenzo   ESP   Movistar Yamaha MotoGP (YZR-M1)   1m   44.089s   [Lap 16/16]   303km/h (Top Speed)
2.   Andrea Iannone   ITA   Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP15)   1m   44.497s   +0.408s   [20/21]   314km/h
3.   Andrea Dovizioso   ITA   Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP15)   1m   44.568s   +0.479s   [17/18]   311km/h
4.   Marc Marquez   ESP   Repsol Honda Team (RC213V)   1m   44.771s   +0.682s   [15/17]   304km/h
5.   Valentino Rossi   ITA   Movistar Yamaha MotoGP (YZR-M1)   1m   44.822s   +0.733s   [17/18]   300km/h
6.   Pol Espargaro   ESP   Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1)   1m   45.088s   +0.999s   [14/16]   303km/h
7.   Cal Crutchlow   GBR   LCR Honda (RC213V)   1m   45.103s   +1.014s   [16/17]   304km/h
8.   Bradley Smith   GBR   Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1)   1m   45.319s   +1.230s   [11/18]   305km/h
9.   Scott Redding   GBR   Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS (RC213V)   1m   45.446s   +1.357s   [15/18]   303km/h
10.   Maverick Viñales   ESP   Team Suzuki Ecstar (GSX-RR)*   1m   45.458s   +1.369s   [15/15]   301km/h
11.   Dani Pedrosa   ESP   Repsol Honda Team (RC213V)   1m   45.507s   +1.418s   [6/18]   309km/h
12.   Aleix Espargaro   ESP   Team Suzuki Ecstar (GSX-RR)   1m   45.557s   +1.468s   [16/17]   299km/h
13.   Hector Barbera   ESP   Avintia Racing (Desmosedici GP14 Open)   1m   45.716s   +1.627s   [17/18]   306km/h
14.   Danilo Petrucci   ITA   Octo Pramac Racing (Desmosedici GP14.2)   1m   45.840s   +1.751s   [17/18]   303km/h
15.   Yonny Hernandez   COL   Octo Pramac Racing (Desmosedici GP14.2)   1m   45.848s   +1.759s   [12/15]   306km/h
16.   Takumi Takahashi   JPN   Team HRC (RC213V)   1m   46.090s   +2.001s   [16/20]   302km/h
17.   Alvaro Bautista   ESP   Factory Aprilia Gresini (RS-GP)   1m   46.166s   +2.077s   [16/16]   300km/h
18.   Nicky Hayden   USA   Aspar MotoGP Team (RC213V-RS)   1m   46.190s   +2.101s   [15/16]   294km/h
19.   Katsuyuki Nakasuga   JPN   Yamaha Factory Racing (YZR-M1)   1m   46.280s   +2.191s   [5/17]   301km/h
20.   Mike Di Meglio   FRA   Avintia Racing (Desmosedici GP14 Open)   1m   46.599s   +2.510s   [3/13]   303km/h
21.   Jack Miller   AUS   LCR Honda (RC213V-RS)*   1m   46.644s   +2.555s   [13/15]   298km/h
22.   Stefan Bradl   GER   Factory Aprilia Gresini (RS-GP)   1m   46.675s   +2.586s   [19/20]   297km/h
23.   Eugene Laverty   IRL   Aspar MotoGP Team (RC213V-RS)*   1m   46.755s   +2.666s   [12/16]   296km/h
24.   Loris Baz   FRA   Forward Racing (Forward Yamaha)*   1m   47.106s   +3.017s   [13/16]   293km/h
25.   Toni Elias   SPA   Forward Racing (Forward Yamaha)   1m   47.408s   +3.319s   [13/13]   298km/h
26.   Alex De Angelis   RSM   E-Motion IodaRacing (ART)   1m   48.192s   +4.103s   [8/10]   289km/h
27.   Kousuke Akiyoshi   JPN   AB Motoracing (RC213V-RS)   1m   48.449s   +4.360s   [14/14]   290km/h

Interesting to see the Ducs showing well - with Dovi complaining about braking issues (still, though he says the bike's better this round) and Motegi famous as a stop-and-go track that emphasizes braking & acceleration.

Rossi's going to have to really abuse that Lorenzo Voodoo doll before Q2.
If the Ducatis and MM qualify in between him and Jlo, it's going to make a mountain to climb.

The weather report has moved the ~100% rain wedge forward 2 hours.
Still a very very solid chance of rain for the first half of Sunday, falling to 50% for MotoGP race time.
So, a freshly hosed off track, maybe wet, maybe not... playing into Rossi's hands.
The variable and inconsistent conditions that corrode JLo's zen.

 [popcorn]

Alex DeAngelis big crash in FP4, with about 20 minutes left to go.

No video at this time, but appears incident on the exit of turn 9.

Initial info is he got into the armco on the inside of the exit of the turn.

Medicos attended to him for quite a while, prior to loading him into the ambulance.

Reported conscious and breathing.

DeAngelis airlifted out.

I hope either a full dry race, or a full wet. Mixed match are always a lottery.

Q2:

1   99   Jorge LORENZO   SPA   Movistar Yamaha MotoGP   Yamaha   302.9   1'43.790   
2   46   Valentino ROSSI   ITA   Movistar Yamaha MotoGP   Yamaha   303.3   1'43.871   0.081 / 0.081
3   93   Marc MARQUEZ   SPA   Repsol Honda Team   Honda   306.4   1'44.216   0.426 / 0.345
4   4   Andrea DOVIZIOSO   ITA   Ducati Team   Ducati   309.7   1'44.322   0.532 / 0.106
5   29   Andrea IANNONE   ITA   Ducati Team   Ducati   312.4   1'44.436   0.646 / 0.114
6   26   Dani PEDROSA   SPA   Repsol Honda Team   Honda   308.9   1'44.582   0.792 / 0.146
7   41   Aleix ESPARGARO   SPA   Team SUZUKI ECSTAR   Suzuki   296.7   1'44.809   1.019 / 0.227
8   35   Cal CRUTCHLOW   GBR   LCR Honda   Honda   302.7   1'44.932   1.142 / 0.123
9   38   Bradley SMITH   GBR   Monster Yamaha Tech 3   Yamaha   304.7   1'45.067   1.277 / 0.135
10   25   Maverick VIÑALES   SPA   Team SUZUKI ECSTAR   Suzuki   300.2   1'45.081   1.291 / 0.014
11   44   Pol ESPARGARO   SPA   Monster Yamaha Tech 3   Yamaha   301.8   1'45.219   1.429 / 0.138
12   45   Scott REDDING   GBR   EG 0,0 Marc VDS   Honda   301.0   1'45.333   1.543 / 0.114

ouch....

http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/10/alex-de-angelis-undergoing-treatment-after-fp4-crash/186519 (http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/10/alex-de-angelis-undergoing-treatment-after-fp4-crash/186519)

1. Dani P
2. Rossi
3. JLo

 JLo went no holds barred and trashed his tires and maybe running the winglets added to the tire deg.

Rossi managed his tires better and ran no winglets

If the video i saw was of deAngelis, he didnt hit barrier but was flipped end over end very very hard.

JLo seems like one of those robots who you can program only once at the beginning of the race, and if any condition change along, there is little to no capability to cope with it.

Smart race by Dani.  [clap]

Post it. I've been searching since yesterday, with nothing but still shots and none were of the actual incident.

Unfortunarely I looked tied to a porn image so wont post it

Was on youtube

Wonder if the winglets are what's causing Ducati to fade from the front also.

Such a good season so far. Once I saw JLo get the lead and start gapping I settled in to just see the procession and was tempted to fast forward till the end. Glad I didnt.

What's the math now on what Rossi or JLo need to do in order to cinch the championship?

^ if JLo went on to win the the next 3 races VR would have to place no less than 2nd to clinch the title

Great race by Dani  [bacon]

The cat worked.  [evil]




I don't think so.  If it was a problem they'd have scrapped them by now.  In JLo's case, the speculation was that since they provide more down pressure (they are essentially anti-wheelie accessories), they wore out JLo's tire faster than VR's.  If they were doing the same on the Ducatis, then we'd have regularly seen Dovi and Joe wearing their front tires more than the field through prior races.




JLo is certainly capable of winning the last three, but I don't think he'll do it.  Dani is possessed, and I think MM may have one more good show left in him, so the field is too strong for a 3 race sweep.  So I'm putting it at 1 or 2 wins tops.  Regardless, the way I'm looking at it is that Rossi just needs to finish directly behind JLo over the final three races, whatever place JLo finished in.

As a follow-up, here are some stats from historical performance at upcoming races:

Philip Island
track record: Lorenzo
Lorenzo: 1st (1), 2nd (3), 3rd (0), other (1), ret (1)
Rossi: 1st (6), 2nd (2), 3rd (5), other (1), ret (1)

Sepang
track record: Marquez
Lorenzo: 1st (0), 2nd (1), 3rd (3), other (1), ret (1)
Rossi: 1st (6), 2nd (3), 3rd (1), other (3), ret (1)

Valencia
track record: Marquez
Lorenzo: 1st (2), 2nd (0), 3rd (1), other (1), ret (2)
Rossi: 1st (2), 2nd (3), 3rd (3), other (4), ret (3)

Rossi has a good record at PI and Sepang,  Lorenzo rides fine at PI but not so good at Sepang.  Valencia is a wild card for both riders.

Great race for little Dani!

Wonder what happened to Iannone?  Is this the first race of the season that he didn't finish in the points?

According to the press release, Iannone had an engine problem.

Dani came up with the goods.


Yes, he's got a narrow window of optimum performance.

Tires, in Parc Ferme.

Pedrosa:
(https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12106964_1635809833373716_1184024656242726101_n.jpg?oh=94b6370cacfe7e55bf23a95b8ad9f389&oe=56D21145)

Rossi
(https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12105731_1635809856707047_3558963523914766090_n.jpg?oh=84dc0e670c05159b8082c52686a939b9&oe=56D2BF1B)

Lorenzo
(https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12107079_1635809893373710_2552752212979858534_n.jpg?oh=ee5c8103f567da022d3524c6b0438f72&oe=56CF47F0)

great stats GW [thumbsup]

nice pics Nick  [thumbsup]

Those are solid odds for both Rossi or JLo. It seems like this championship might be decided by the Hondas if they get in the way. Damn this is one hell of a good season.

And those pics from Speeddog really put into perspective how bad the front tires were.  Emmet spoke about them in his post race article but there arent any images.

https://motomatters.com/analysis/2015/10/11/2015_motegi_sunday_motogp_round_up_part_.html

Update on DeAngelis... http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/12/alex-de-angelis-undergoing-further-medical-checks/186519 (http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2015/10/12/alex-de-angelis-undergoing-further-medical-checks/186519)

Still can't find video.

I went back and looked. Pretty certain now that wasnt his video.

Was a good race. Unexpected and great for the championship (JLos tyre degrading a little further that is)

Pure speculation here, but after looking at the tire pics, i would say that the winglets may have played a pretty large role in the excessive wear.   From my experience, it's not that common to see that much center tread wear on a front tire.   Even the the transition area (from center to edge) on Jlo's tire is worn way more that his competitors.   Since the winglets exert more downforce based on speed, it makes sense to me that they greatly influenced tire wear and grip during initial straight line braking and tip in. This would explain how he was able to gap the field until he eventually abused the wet compound tire.   Either that or it was a quality control issue.  Sabotage maybe?   

I also noticed that towards the end of the race, Rossi was riding outside of the race line to stay on the wet tarmac while coming down the straights and Pedrosa
was favoring the damper edge of the racing line through the corners trying to manage the tire wear.

I don't know how much of the J-Lo's wear was due to the winglets.  He was riding like his pants were on fire.  I personally think this was J-Lo not managing his tires. 

And manwithgun was right, the other riders were staying offline to find went areas when going down the straights.  J-lo wasn't.  Could that have been the difference?

I like watching wet races.   ;D

George only knows laptime. He wins races by setting the fastest. If race craft, like managing tires or banging fairings, is a major factor in winning a race...

it won't be George winning.

Rossi knows how to win when the situation is tight, and it's getting tight.

Just to emphasisze on JLo's one dimensional style racing you would think he'd know that pushing as hard as he was on a drying track would kill his tires.  Come on JLo you've been in the elite class for some time now that's a rookie mistake.

Hard to say if JLo's riding or the wings were responsible for his excessive tire wear. I'd say probably both. The wings may have added some wear, but his blistering pace at the beginning and his refusal to find wet track in the latter stages sure didn't help matters.

I have to agree that JLo is seeming more and more one dimensional. When conditions don't change he's untouchable, otherwise he's very beatable.

Pedro is looking very very good the last couple races. If that guy can stay healthy he may have a shot next season. Of course, I think that every year! I'd like to see him win a WC...his toughness is underestimated. His improvement in the wet is also commendable...he used to be a sure thing to wad it in the rain.

+1 on Dani

I'd like VR to win this year, then Dani next year, and then I don't care.

Not to get ahead of myself, but if VR remains on top of his game, Jorge learns a little about managing a race, Dani does not get injured, MM and the 2016 bike are in sync, and the Ducs make that final tweaks to be on par with the Yammy/Hondas, then 2016 could be a season for the ages.

^^^ A season for the ages ended with the 500cc 2 strokes.  ;)

500cc 1991 Suzuka Final Lap (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HXqZh5oTK0#)

Such a totally different riding style back then!
Look at head position vs. bike central plane. It lays actually on the outer side of the turn, while today is well tucked within it, and low.

I don't know...if HRC gives MM a better bike next season he may just win it all again.

Yup^^^

If Honda's tweaks were in a positive direction rather than negative, Marc would have had this season also. 

Honda screwed up his ride or this would have been a completely different season. 

I would not be so sure that he would have completely dominated. Yamaha gained a lot this year, especially with the seem less gearbox. It would have been a 3 way fight.

Jorghey needs to worry about the unpredictable weather in Malaysia, but he should feel comfortable in both PI and Valencia. He has always been focused "the perfect lap". He's pretty much unbeatable in good conditions and if he gets the lead. If he can pull of wins in those 2 races and the HRC boys get in between him and Rossi...

Rossi managed to be on the front row in Motegi. He really needs to continue that trend. As someone mentioned previously on this thread, if he focuses on finishing just behind Jorghey the rest of the year, the championship is his.

True. I don't think he would have dominated like last season. But, he's in 3rd place, less than 100 points behind the leader...and he's crashed out of 1/3 of the races so far. He's still tied for 2nd with Rossi for # of wins. Not too shabby!

I'm not saying that he might not be leading, but the Yamaha looked unbeatable in some of the middle races. He would have been my pick to win the championship, but not to have won the first 10 races as he did last year.