2010 Silly Season

[Speeddog]

A bottle of Makers Mark (or equivalent for non Burbon drinkers) says he finishes the championship no better than 5th (or 4th if Stoner doesn't show back up). First response gets the bet.

He's _clearly_ good, but so are Hayden and Dovi and Melandri... I'm not convinced he's Rossi and Lorenzo and Stoner and Pedrosa good. Those 4 are most of a second a lap faster than everybody else, I seriously doubt Spies will match their pace, at least not quickly enough in his first year to be a championship contender.

big

I'll take that action. 

[Speeddog]

I think he's good enough and the Yammie will be good enough to push the little robot down in the pecking order.
Ben and Dovi are gonna make life difficult for Pedrosa.
IMO, Pedrosa will ride well, but throw it into the litterbox hard enough that he'll get hurt.

[bigiain]

I'll take that action. 

Done!

big

[bigiain]

I think he's good enough and the Yammie will be good enough to push the little robot down in the pecking order.
Ben and Dovi are gonna make life difficult for Pedrosa.
IMO, Pedrosa will ride well, but throw it into the litterbox hard enough that he'll get hurt.

I'm still confident that even if he _is_ that good, he'll take long enough to get up to speed on a MotoGP bike to not be a serious contender in the first year. I still think the current "top four" are as good as unbeatable over a season even compared to the rest of the worlds best motorcycle road racers. Barring injury, I'll be enjoying your burbon sometime around now next year :-)

big

[Speeddog]

I suspect Ben's 'Satellite' bike will orbit closer to 'Factory' than this years' bikes. 

Yamaha is gathering a pretty good steamroller for '10.
I foresee them sweeping a couple podiums.

[Spidey]

let's put this in perspective for a moment... teamed with edwards, you don't think he'll match or beat his teammate?

Depends whether they let De Angelis stay in GP 

[gm2]

couple things have to happen.. first and foremost, an actual confirmation that he's going to tech 3.  with edwards being moved to herve's payroll and every site out there saying 'spies to tech 3?'... just need he or yamaha to confirm it.

then there's confirmation that he's not getting a 4-races-behind M1.  if he hopes to battle the fantastic four yamaha has to give him a factory bike.  and not an hrc-elias style factory, but actually factory, all year.  and not any more engine-allowance-detuned than the fiats.

then we need confirmation that House is coming with him.  gotta be, but hasn't been mentioned.

IF all that happens i'd put 50 RRWAF bucks on ben finishing his first year in GP no worse than third.



wildcard issue: whether or not HRC delivers a bike that works from the beginning of the year

good news issue: unlike pirellis, he's already tested and raced on bridgestones. 

[EvilSteve]

I doubt he's going to finish anywhere near that high. CE2 is the guy he has to beat & if everything goes well I can see Spies getting similar and potentially slightly better results than CE2.

In the races that Spies did on the GP bike in 2008 his results were really good:
Date    Grand Prix    Pos.    
14 Sep. '08   Indianapolis Grand Prix (MotoGP)   6   
20 Jul. '08   American Grand Prix (MotoGP)   8   
22 Jun. '08   British Grand Prix (MotoGP)   14

He beat his teammate at Indy which was a track that many people didn't have a lot of experience on (if any) and IIRC Spies had tested on because he wasn't a rider at the time. That would suggest that his results *on a Suzuki* would be more around 8th. He seems to learn tracks pretty quickly (the animal thing works!) but that doesn't put him contending for the championship IMO. Honestly, that puts Spies at about the same level as a good 250 rider coming into the sport. I think Spies' talent gives him the opportunity to skip the teething period suffered by so many SBK riders which would be great but it's not going to be until his second year (if at all) that he'll be contending for the Championship IMO.

[derby]

i'm sorry, was that test in a hurricane? 

[pennyrobber]

You picked the right three as next in line-- Hayden, Dovi, Melandri.  I'd put Capi in there if he weren't 800 years old and riding a Ninja 250.  We'll see where Bautista and Barbera fall in terms of talent.  I just don't know what to expect from them.  

I am a big Bautista fan but I am afraid he will be lackluster in MotoGP. He's a slow starter and usually has to pass quite a few people to get up near the front in a typical race. This might be possible in 250 but it will be much harder in MotoGP.

[gm2]

I doubt he's going to finish anywhere near that high.

...so is that a wager or just chatter?  

[EvilSteve]

That's what's known as non-committal  opinion vomit... 

Not much of a betting man but if you have paypal, I'll put $5 where my mouth (typing) is.

[Speeddog]

Mary Spies 'clarifies' Ben's contract:
http://roadracingworld.com/news/article/?article=38146

[pennyrobber]

Mary Spies 'clarifies' Ben's contract:
http://roadracingworld.com/news/article/?article=38146

"according to Spies’ mother Mary Spies, who serves as his personal manager but not his business manager"

She's not his business manager, so really, how much does she actually know. Let the speculation continue.

[gm2]

"according to Spies’ mother Mary Spies, who serves as his personal manager but not his business manager"

She's not his business manager, so really, how much does she actually know. Let the speculation continue.

um, maybe being his mother her exact title is irrelevant.  she probably knows what's going on.


although, the rrw article really says nothing.