Considering his crash rate last year, I'd say the other guys have a chance. Just a few of those crashes happening on Sunday instead of Fri/Sat can change the landscape.
True...but according to him that is by design. He hangs it out on practice days to learn, and is more conservative (relatively speaking) during the race. MM is smart...he knows he has to finish to win.
The practice crashing needs to come down as well though...eventually it will get the better of him.