immobilizer about to lock me out? does it give any warning? no code or red key

[nllm_oo_mlln]

first off: the bike only had a red key when I purchased it-- turns out it was the chip from a black key in red key clothing; it won't initiate any programming sequence according to the dealer. I've read up on the immobilizer but there are a lot of threads on it but none that address my issue. 

After two weeks of not riding due to rain and the chain on its last leg I noticed two things; occasional wheezing / hiccup at idle AND the immobilizer LED flashing three times after the gauges sweep...  but then it starts (about 20 times so far).  from what I've read here it shouldn't start after it throws that code.   a couple times it only blinked twice. 

The rain issue. I park right under a valley of 2 story house head first so I'm thinking there is some moisture somewhere dogging the communication sequence of the imobo'. it's been dry and 70-32ish for the last 5 days seems like moisture would have evaporated in this time -- but then again I get an OIL light when turned on but not started-- like what my 695 did after rain.   I've visually inspected the harness in front of the airbox. looks fine and dry.  aside from visual inspection what should I look for here and do specifically?  I haven't done anything with the antenna besides jiggle it and it was firm and the conditions persist-- again what should I specifically do w/ the antenna? 

I don't really want to take it to the dealer because they are programed to sell me new gauges, CPU and keys. if Ducati "steals" it's bike back that may be what I'll have to do but I don't want to.

This is a 2006 620 with 10k (1k of it's mine) stock and the bike's warranty expired before I knew her. Experience: I put 32k on a 695 and did a lot of the maintenance myself.  I've changed tires, installed pipes, chain, sprockets, changed oil and other bolt-ons  but never got into the electronics (aside from a mad doctor tail light.) but I do have a bunch of 12v experience w/ stereos and other gadgets

questions:
do immobilizers usually give warning signs?
what should I specifically do to make sure the electronic system is okay?
should I clone the key now with a competent locksmith in case the chip is about to go or could that ring a bell that can't be unrung and lock me out? 
and mainly; is this about to fail and leave me stranded?

if you read all that then thank you. if you can help; even better.

[herm]

cant help with most of those questions. if i can find my manual somewhere, i will check and see what it says about the 3 flash thing.
one option would be to get the ECU flashed, and have the immobilizer disabled at that time. then get a couple more keys.

[seevtsaab]

+1 to herms advice, I'm in the same boat, no code card, i may send to have ecu flashed. Or, continue to ride the piss out of it and not worry.

Parking under a waterfall is kindof asking for it.

You SHOULD have oil light when on and not started. Worry when you don't.
You may want to establish a baseline with the ignition, TPS & idle and TB sync, check plugs etc.

I  kringe every time any lights on my dash come on.

05 M620 14K

[somegirl]

Here's what my manual (2007 695) says about the lights (bold highlighting is from me):

"When the ignition key is turned from ON to OFF, the immobilizer system activates the engine lock.  When the ignition key is turned from OFF to ON  to start the engine: if the code is recognised, the warning light on the instrument panel will flash briefly.  This means that the immobilizer system has recognised the code and disabled the engine lock.  When you press the START button, the engine will start up.

If either the warning light or the EOBD light remain lit, the code has not been recognized.  In this case, it is advisable to turn the ignition key back to OFF and then to ON again.  If the engine still does not start, try using another black key.  If the engine still does not start, contact the DUCATI Service network.

If the warning light keeps flashing, it means that an error signal from the immobilizer system has been cleared (e.g. with the override procedure using the throttle twistgrip*).  Turn the key to OFF and back to ON; the immobilizer light should return to its normal state.

Warning: Sharp knocks can damage the electronic components inside the key.  Always use the same key during the procedure.  The use of different keys could prevent the system from recognizing the code in the inserted key."

*This procedure requires the code card.

note that the American/British spellings are as they are in the manual, not from me.

[nllm_oo_mlln]

thanks somegirl-- that's exactly what's happening and always happened before. I just never noticed until I got that hiccup and then I started getting paranoid about everything... I had 30 tabs open about the immobilizer and didn't take time to RTFM... thanks the bold did help (in my lame defense I busted a contact last week and just got the replacement- I do have the manual though).  Thanks herm and seevtsaab too... I thought about flashing but I read on here it didn't work and they were locked out for good with a fried CPU. but info is pretty scarce about it after almost a year.  I'm gonna get the key cloned at http://www.motorcyclekeys.com/ducatichipkey.html in the off season -- thanks again