Does this mean I can bump up the service interval to 3 years / 15k?
Unfortunately, I believe we will never be able to say "yes" to something like that.
That being said, I have learned so much about timing belts through bringing these to the market! The technology for automotive timing belts is derived from industrial belts used to run manufacturing machines, where downtime to maintenance costs serious money. The belt industry has a ton of knowledge with what works and doesn't.
Timing belts as a whole are unimaginably more robust than most Ducati owners realize. The engineers I work with at first didn't believe the incredibly short maintenance interval on Ducati engines. But given the motorcycle industry's somewhat disregard for "best practice" in other industries, the interval Ducati has is quite safe. It allows for worn sprockets; note that industry practice is to change sprockets with every other belt change (or at most 3 belt changes) -- have you ever heard of someone replacing sprockets? Oh right, people install aluminum sprockets, which violates an industry rule to never ever use aluminum, anodized or otherwise. The insanely conservative interval tolerates a lot of negligence and it allows for hot dry climates and incorrect tensioning.
Which brings us back to the beginning of the discussion at any dealership: given the repercussions of a belt failure, why risk the engine to save a little money? So what if a timing belt could go 100,000 miles? If slashing the lifespan of a belt by a factor of ten eliminates belt failures, the savings in the brand's reputation is worth the relatively mild grumbling about spending money on belts.
Chris
