National Insurance Crime Bureau Small Decline in Motorcycle Thefts in 2012

[Privateer]

https://www.nicb.org/newsroom/news-releases/2012-motorcycle-theft-and-recovery-report

DES PLAINES, Ill., Nov. 25, 2013 – The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) today released a report on motorcycle thefts in the United States for 2012. The report is based on National Crime Information Center (NCIC) motorcycle theft data for 2012. A total of 46,061 motorcycles were reported stolen in 2012 compared with 46,667 reported stolen in 2011—a decrease of 606 thefts or 1 percent.

Month	2012 Thefts	Percent of Thefts (%)	Rank
JANUARY	2,481	5%	11
FEBRUARY	2,089	5%	12
MARCH	3,112	7%	9
APRIL	3,510	8%	7
MAY	4,507	10%	5
JUNE	4,765	10%	3
JULY	5,529	12%	1
AUGUST	5,290	11%	2
SEPTEMBER	4,751	10%	4
OCTOBER	4,171	9%	6
NOVEMBER	3,197	7%	8
DECEMBER	2,659	6%	10

Rank	Make	2012 Thefts	Percent of Total Thefts
1	American Honda Motor Co., Inc.	9,082	20%
2	Yamaha Motor Corporation	7,517	16%
3	American Suzuki Motor Corporation	7,017	15%
4	Kawasaki Motors Corp., U.S.A.	4,839	11%
5	Harley Davidson, Inc.	3,755	8%
6	Taotao Group Co. Ltd	914	2%
7	Kymco U.S.A., Inc	496	1%
8	KTM Sportmotorcycle AG	442	1%
9	Astronautical Bashan	383	1%
10	Ducati Motor Holding	329	1%
11	Vespa International	326	1%
12	Genuine Cycle	283	1%
13	Bajaj Auto., Ltd	279	1%
14	Goldenvale, Inc. Roketa	270	1%
15	Kaitong Motorcycle Manufacture Co., Ltd	224	<1%

[Lucumon]

A few thoughts:

1. Is a 1% decrease statistically significant?  I dont think this decrease is sufficient for a conclusion that motorcycle thefts are going down.  The 2010 to 2011 decrease of 7.5% if you follow the link and review the documents is a bit more substantial... but still I'd like to see the last 10 years worth of data.  I am guessing this has decreased in the same manner most crimes have since 1993.

2. With population increasing, the thefts per population would be lower... but still not significant.

3. Fark, Fairfax City is close by. (again, read the .pdf from the article)

4. It is nice to see Ducati so far down that % of thefts list... anyone have any idea why?  Is the immobilizer credited for this?

[ducatiz]

Very unlikely that change is significant.

That change could be accounted for by a number of factors.

Also, compare changes from 2007-2010:

https://www.nicb.org/newsroom/news-releases/2010-motorcycle-theft-report

65,000 bikes stolen in 2007 and 49,000+ in 2010.

[hbliam]

4. It is nice to see Ducati so far down that % of thefts list... anyone have any idea why?  Is the immobilizer credited for this?

There are 3000% more thefts of Honda because there are 10000% more Honda's to steal. Nothing to do with the immobilizer.

[Lucumon]

There are 3000% more thefts of Honda because there are 10000% more Honda's to steal. Nothing to do with the immobilizer.

Good point... then what is the rate of theft per brand type on the road?