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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
742
FXHW60 PHFO 131447 AAA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
435 AM HST THU FEB 13 2014
.UPDATED...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND GUSTY WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE ON THE MENU FOR MOST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS WITH TRADE WINDS AND SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
KAUAI TO MAUI COUNTY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT WEAKENS NEAR
KAUAI. THEN A KONA LOW FORMS WEST OF KAUAI OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AFFECTING MANY OF THE ISLANDS. DIMINISHING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE TRADE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
BACK UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF KAUAI WILL GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO
KAUAI LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. IT WILL WEAKEN IN THE
VICINITY OF KAUAI...AND AS IT WEAKENS...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY. THE TIMELINE IS
FOR THE STIFFER NORTHEAST WINDS AND SHOWERS TO REACH OAHU THIS
EVENING...MOLOKAI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAUI BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TRADE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH KAUAI AND OAHU GETTING THE BRUNT OF IT.
BUT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES...MANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
END UP ON THE LEE SIDE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR KAUAI AND MOST OF ITS SURROUNDING WATERS...
SHOULD IT BE EXTENDED TO BEYOND TODAY.
THE WEATHER TURNS UGLIER ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW...OR KONA LOW...700 MILES
WEST OF KAUAI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF /EC/ ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BEING THE EC WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS DUE TO A DEEPER SURFACE LOW. THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO
ADJUSTMENTS WHERE THE HEAVY WEATHER COULD BE EXTENDED TO THE BIG
ISLAND. BUT FOR NOW...WE WILL GO AS FAR AS MOLOKAI AND LANAI ON
MONDAY.
