Gas prices

[RAT900]

Can the Farm-Aid crew now join OPEC....or maybe COPEC?

[ducpainter]

Can the Farm-Aid crew now join OPEC....or maybe COPEC?

Hard to say...I don't meddle in others political aspirations.

We've reached maximum world population for the land now being farmed to sustain said population using current methods.

That will mean new methods/genetic meddling to increase yields along with higher prices due to demand.

This is a serious situation...I suggest you start tilling your garden.

[Drjones]

. . . yeah gas is oil and it is a dwindling resource so prices over the long haul will only trend in one direction . . .

Yes and no.  There are more proven oil reserves now than there were thirty years ago.  The exception is that the reserves are more difficult to extract the oil which raises costs and the oil extracted have more impurities that have to be refined out which again raises costs.  The "easy oil" (land based low sulfur) reserves are at the end of their life.

[redxblack]

And then there's the opportunity to create more renewable power sources (hydrogen fuel cell, etc) that are certainly more expensive now, but will become cheaper as oil gets more scarce.

QE plays a huge role, but (as already said) the futures market is driving the increasing prices. The US has laws against speculating on certain commodities (like oil), but they're difficult to enforce and even more difficult to want to enforce due to political concerns.

[il d00d]

The "easy oil" (land based low sulfur) reserves are at the end of their life.

So, increases in gas prices should rise or fall in accordance with needing to extract more expensive oil and not with market value of futures, right?  In theory, anyways?  

I can understand how political instability in the Middle East, hurricanes, etc should affect the market, but it seems to me that it only affects profits for oil companies.   That headline never goes "Hurricane results in record losses for Big Oil"*  

I am ambivalent on energy trading - on one hand, there is no good argument that someone with money in an open market should not be able to make more, as long as they work within the legal limits.  
On the other hand, energy traders seem to be adding another layer of cost, with really no added benefit to anyone but energy traders.  As far as producers go, there seems to be no market counterforce to sudden price increases. Sure, prices will go up as risk goes up, but those risks never seem to result in losses for the producers.  And windfall profit taxes are great... for the federal government.



* Link  It is more likely to read "The spikes caused by Hurricane Katrina -- which heavily damaged oil production and refining in the Gulf region -- accentuated gains the refiners and producers already were enjoying over the past year. Exxon Mobil Corp., the Irving, Tex., behemoth that produces and refines oil, reported in July that its second-quarter profit was up 32 percent, to $7.64 billion"

[Triple J]

On the other hand, energy traders seem to be adding another layer of cost, with really no added benefit to anyone but energy traders.  

This is the problem...or at least the reason, depending on your view.

As far as producers go, there seems to be no market counterforce to sudden price increases. Sure, prices will go up as risk goes up, but those risks never seem to result in losses for the producers.

Sure there is...reduced demand. I forget who it was exactly, but some Saudi OPEC rep. said a while back in an interview that they prefer the price of oil be in the $85 range. Lower reduces profits, and higher reduces demand and slows the world economy. He said $85/barrel was a nice balance of profits for them, reasonable demand, and a healthly global economy.

[Veloce-Fino]

The "easy oil" (land based low sulfur) reserves are at the end of their life.

The US imports roughly 56% of the oil it consumes. Lower this number to 20-30% and we have reasonable prices.
How do you do this? Domestic and offshore drilling. (Alaska)

Did you know that the typical oil well is not drained to empty before moving on?

Only about 50-60% of oil is extracted from surface drilling. The remainder is deemed to difficult and therefore costly to access compared to simple moving to a new location.

There amount of oil in existing wells is comparative to all the oil that has ever been extracted.

[Monster Dave]

Why haven't we mastered solar power yet??

Seriously!!

[cokey]

Cuz they haven't figured out how to tax the sun..

[Monster Dave]

Cuz they haven't figured out how to tax the sun..

Oh Snap! 


but I think you may be right!!

[Mozella]

Why haven't we mastered solar power yet??

Seriously!!

If you really serious, I'll give you some basic information.  We are, in fact, mastering solar power.  Smart guys can now make relatively high efficiency solar panels, but at high cost.  These are the things you buy if you need power for your space craft.  They're also working on making cheaper panels, but they have much lower efficiency which is acceptable if you don't have to worry too much about space and weight.  These are the type you might use if you want to keep your tractor battery topped up way out in the south forty where you aren't connected to the grid.

What they call "grid parity", where solar power is equal to the cost of grid power, is already here in some places where they use diesel to make electricity (Hawaii for example).  It will come to other areas gradually in the future, but be careful when you do the math.  In almost every case, your tax dollars are being spent to offset the true cost of most kinds of alternative energy.

One fact will never change.  The energy density produced by the sun is low........... really low.  That means if you intend to capture much energy from the sun you need a lot of time and a lot of area.  At the same time, the energy required to propel your bike at speeds that you might consider thrilling, or even just acceptable, is considerable.  The same goes for your average house, which consumes a LOT of energy which means a HUGE array is necessary.  Cheap per-square-foot costs are fine, but if you need a jillion square feet of solar cells to run your air conditioner, refrigerator, and deep freeze, you can easily see the problem.

How about things which move? Consider the various "Solar Challenge" style races where pure solar powered vehicles compete.  These things just barely can take a skinny teenager down the road where the sun is so hot you can fry an egg on the vehicle.  And they call them vehicles because the word "car" does not even come close to accurately describing them.  When it comes to excitement, they ain't gonna' replace sport bikes any time soon, that's for sure.

In theory you can power your hot bike with a high tech electric motor and fancy batteries or fancy fuel cells.  People are working on that right now, but it ain't cheap and is not likely to get cheap in the immediate future.  You could gather and store the sun's energy to power this bike of the future, but at the moment you need a HUGE area for your rather expensive solar panels and plenty of other expensive gear to make it all work.

Bottom line:  Right now gasoline is a cheap and wonderful fuel and gasoline powered motorcycles are a great bargain considering how much fun they deliver and how little they (and their fuel) actually costs.

[bdub]

We've reached maximum world population for the land now being farmed to sustain said population using current methods.

Where did you get this info?

[RAT900]

We've reached maximum world population for the land now being farmed to sustain said population using current methods.

Where did you get this info?

It sounds very apocalyptic....I like it!!

[redxblack]

Malthusian apocalypse!

[cokey]

Regarding solar power, I saw on tue science channel one day that they had a new way of utilizing it...  a liquid in which you can put btween glass even plastic which creats energy from the sun.  Said it was more efficient then reg panels and a lot cheaper..why haven't they started using that?


Sun tax..  °_°